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Thursday, June 04, 2009

The Battle Lines Are Drawn

To the press Max Mosley has made known that there will be no compromises. And for good measure he has reminded the FOTA teams as to just who has been setting the rules for the last 60 years. And if they don't like it, they can eat shit and start their own championship. Well that would be interesting. Personally I'd prefer to that they did. What better way to rid themselves of cancerous CVC and corrupt dictatorships? But somehow I have a feeling this isn't going to happen.

What I do think will happen is that we'll have like Brawn and Force India getting really nervous and caving to Max pressure. I reckon even Red Bull and their two teams will follow. This leaves the five manufacturers Toyota, BMW, Mercedes (via McLaren), Renault and Ferrari. Rumour has it Renault and Toyota want out if given the chance. So this leaves BMW, Mercedes and Ferrari. Of these, only Ferrari have been extremely hardcore.

Some have suggested that the remaining 5 manufacturers run 4 car teams to make a 20 car grid in a new championship. Sure why not? Or how about allowing customer cars and allowing private entrants to purchase their cars, perhaps with the condition that the customer cars be co-identified with the manufacturer. As I have said numerous times, Red Bull has proven that the concept can work. And perhaps Red Bull can persuaded that a new championship is a good idea and that they should put all 4 Red Bull Technologies racing cars in there.

In prosperous economic conditions, I would say a new FOTA run championship would have a better than even chance of succeeding. But the reality of it is that in these turbulent times, they will not have the collective will to do so. And that would be the end of FOTA. The members will either cave in to Max or they will leave the sport. The only question is which option will Ferrari choose? I doubt if Luca would want to lose face over this affair but what are his choices? Ferrari have signed up with the FOM to 2012. If they leave now, they are facing a massive lawsuit from the likes of the dogs, Bernie and CVC. Could they afford to do so? Profitable as Ferrari are, it would be in their best interests to do so. Luca may just have to eat humble pie over this entire affair.

The rest have not gone to such lengths as Ferrari and therefore caving in to Max will not be such a loathsome option. For those manufacturers that choose to remain, you can be assured there will be reconciliatory gestures all round. Lots of back slapping and all that with Max and Bernie.

So for those that sign up to the FIA championship what would be their future? More of the same. Whilst teams want rule stability and governance transparency, they will have neither of this. And faced with this budget cap, they will wonder how to respond to Max when he keeps changing the rules ever so often to his own whims and fancies. Some people never learn the lessons of history and this folly will continue on.

In short, I'd love to see a new championship but I seriously doubt if this is going to happen. Nice try FOTA.

PS: Please prove me wrong

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